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    August 26

    Economic Distress

    I read some interesting articles today on macroeconomic trends. Feel free to read the links below and make up your own mind. My conclusions (biased of course :), so read with a grain of salt):
    • US corporate profits are at an all time high in part due to increased labor supply (which has kept wages flat) and productivity due to globalization and technology. This trend may be sustainable due to the magnitude of the labor supply glut provided by countries such as India and China.
    • Increasing interest rates coupled with stagnating or falling real estate prices will have doubly-adverse effects on US GDP since the dominant asset for consumers is housing equity and the dominant debt is housing-equity backed loans
    • Neither the Republican or Democratic parties are proposing reforms to address systemic causes undermining median American wealth such as education, retirement, etc.
    • Employees in countries such as China that are contributing to the labor supply glut are better positioned for sustained advantage in the global labor market due to higher national investment rates and government recognition of systemic problems in rising income inequality
    As an investor, I am encouraged that US equities with enterprise-focus and international presence will continue to prosper in coming years although purely domestic consumer-oriented companies may falter. As a citizen, I am discouraged by the lack of true reform in the areas of education and social services by parties on both sides of the aisle.

    Stagnant median US income and declining economic mobility (may need subscription)


    Corporate profit margins at record high

    Chinese legislation to cut wage disparity


    Savings rates in China and the US (good data, but watch out for bias)